By Selcuk Colakoglu
The Asia-Pacific region has solidified its position as a global center in 2014. In this respect, the summits held by the leading regional organizations the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) carried the weight of the 2014 world agenda. Yet, besides the economic opportunities in Asia, the region’s security risks will continue to be among the top issues discussed in 2015.
The US-China Balance
The main topic of debates revolving around security in the Asia-Pacific is focused on whether or not there is strategic competition between the US and China. Although Beijing reiterates that China has no intention to compete with the US or with any other power, its increasing economic and political influence is enough to make countries in the region worry. Here, other Asian powers such as Japan and India are in search of policies that can balance the rise of China. Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have also assumed a more enthusiastic attitude when it comes to balancing the power of China. Indonesia, on the other hand, as a leading country in Southeast Asia, doesn’t want to be forced to choose between the US or China for fear of stoking the fires of polarization. At this point, the policies to be applied and strategies to be implemented by the US will be decisive in determining the attitudes of other Asian countries towards China. But it should be bore in mind that the debate on whether China is a hegemonic power in Asia or not is also a debate that aims to predict the future of the region and the world at large, especially in the mid and long terms. Actually, China is the largest trade partner of the US, as well as that of other countries in the region such as Japan, India, and Vietnam.
Hong Kong Protests
One of the most difficult situations that China faced in 2014 took place in its autonomous region of Hong Kong. In 1997, the UK relinquished control of Hong Kong to China along with assurances that the region would maintain significant financial and administrative autonomy. The desire of Beijing to increase its control over the region by making changes to its electoral system sparked intense reaction. Here, Hong Kong was engulfed by mass protests from September to December, with University students playing an especially important role in the demonstrations. This occurrence has led many to question the “Beijing Consensus”, which had been presented to the world as China’s development model that would ensuring social justice, peace, and good governance throughout the country. In this regard, claims that the people of China would not be satisfied with successful development and social welfare alone and would demand more democracy and freedom gained strength.
The most affected external actor of the Hong Kong protests was Taiwan, as China had already had plans to integrate the island with the mainland by making use of the “one country, two systems” model that has been in place in Hong Kong. In Taiwan’s local elections in November, the ruling Kuomintang Party, which is pro-unification with China, lost considerable ground, while the Democratic Progressive Party, which campaigned on a pro-independence platform, won a decisive victory. This case has been assessed as a response of the Taiwanese people to the idea of reunification with China based on the Hong Kong model.
Border and Island Conflicts
In 2014, the Asia-Pacific experienced an intensification of tensions as a result of the disputes over islands and maritime areas. Here, the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands became more and more heated throughout the year.
The most complex maritime disputes in the region are taking place in the South China Sea. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are all involved in disputes over the sovereignty of various islands located in the area. In addition, there are also disputes currently occurring between Japan and South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia, and Malaysia and Singapore. Again, border disputes between China and India, Pakistan and India, and Thailand and Cambodia have seen no progress for a considerable amount of time. These border issues are considered to be serious obstacles to the development of bilateral relations, although they were not placed so high on the agenda in 2014. In addition, the general trend of growing nationalism in Asia also complicates the processes that could eventually lead to the solution of these types of boundary and territorial disputes. Nonetheless, up until now Asian countries have managed to prevent these inland and maritime problems from having an adverse effect on their economic relations.
North Korea and Myanmar
North Korea continues to be the black box of Asia if not the world. It is extremely difficult to predict the behavior of North Korea and its young leader Kim Jong-un. Concerns emanating from the uncertainty of North Korea’s actions are further augmented when considering that the country possesses nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. From time to time, North Korea tries to play a decisive role in the regional balancing act by escalating tensions or soothing them. In 2014, North Korea continued to maintain close relations with China and Russia, both of whose support in international arena is crucial for North Korea. With the help of these partners, Pyongyang ensured that the claims of widespread and systematic human rights violations in North Korea would be vetoed at the UN Security Council in December. And finally, the copious debate on whether a Hollywood comedy film about an attempt to assassinate the leader of North Korea would be shown or not due to North Korean threats was enough to rekindle considerations of North Korea’s power and influence.
Myanmar, as the host of the 2014 ASEAN Summit, continued its integration into the international system, and the Western world in particular, by hosting the leaders of the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, the reform process of democratization in Myanmar which began in 2010 seems to be steadily progressing. However, various ethnic groups in Myanmar, especially the Muslims of Rohingya, continue to suffer from discrimination and difficulties in obtaining equal citizenship rights.
Non-Traditional Security Risks
Non-traditional security threats in Asia-Pacific region have been gradually increasing. Countries in the region still have not been able to foster effective collaboration with one another in combatting international terrorism, international crime organizations, maritime piracy, cybercrime, energy insecurity, illegal immigration, climate change and food insecurity. Regional organizations such as APEC, ASEAN, and SCO have so far shown difficulty in acting fast enough in the development of a common agenda and method that would allow for the actors of the region to cooperatively struggle against these issues. Here, it is quite difficult the countries to reach an agreement and to take action, as they each have varying priorities and approaches.
As a result, security risks in the Asia-Pacific have appeared to increase in 2014 and the expectations that these risks can be overcome in 2015 are low. Although no explosive problem is expected in the region in the short term, if adequate precautions are not taken in time, in the mid term, the Asia-Pacific may face a serious crisis.
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