Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics, according to a recent report.
The Thailand military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group.
“The military’s apparent prescription, the deliberate weakening of elected leaders in favor of unelected institutions, is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion,” according to Matthew Wheeler, South East Asia Analyst. “It will deepen divisions while doing further damage to the institutions best suited to safeguard the rights of political minorities, root out corruption and resolve social conflict”.
“Thai society is both deeply divided and – now – accustomed to having a political voice”, said Jonathan Prentice, Chief Policy Officer and Acting Asia Program Director. “Stability will remain elusive unless Thailand forges a political path in which all Thais respect the majority vote and see their own concerns acknowledged”.
A nine-year cycle of popular protests followed by military and judicial interventions to oust elected governments has left the country deeply polarized, notes the International Crisis Group.
The May 22 military coup brought an end to sometimes violent street protests but not to political uncertainty: equipped with absolute power, the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) quashes dissent and remains vague about the timeline for a return to electoral democracy.
The International Crisis Group’s latest report, A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability, examines the conflict’s underlying causes and warns that, by curbing the power of elected representatives in favor of appointed officials, the coup makers risk yet another round of violent conflict.
According to the International Crisis Group report, the May 22 coup demonstrated the failure of the 2006 coup and subsequent governments to address the factors underpinning Thailand’s protracted conflict. More than ever, the society is riven across regional, ethnic and quasi-ideological lines, by deep income inequality and by a difficult relationship between Bangkok and its peripheries, notes the report.
Specifically, the report finds that at the heart of the turmoil is not only a political struggle, but disagreement over what constitutes legitimate authority, with some regarding the popular ballot as paramount and others regarding majoritarianism as another form of tyranny, requiring strong checks and balances by the establishment. In the background, a looming royal succession – prohibited by law from being discussed – adds to the uncertainty.
To achieve its stated goal of establishing a durable democracy, the NCPO must encourage the development of a national dialogue, provide for meaningful political participation of all and reach out particularly to those in the North and North East who believe they have been serially disenfranchised by the Bangkok establishment, argues the report.
Failure to do so risks an eventual clash between the army and protesters, such as those that resulted from the 1991 and 2006 coups, the International Crisis Group report said.
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