By Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty
Thailand has a new prime minister. The National Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, the only candidate. There was no opposition and no one voted against him.
The General’s selection has been duly approved by Thailand’s revered and ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej. General Chan-ocha took over power in May this year in a coup d’état, following an earlier ruling by the Constitutional Court that led to the removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, leaving a tottering government, led by a caretaker prime minister.
The Thai military has consolidated its hold on political power by using a new constitutional mechanism which grants the power to choose members of legislative, executive and judicial bodies, during an interim period before elections are held. This constitutional provision enables the military to bar or restrict politicians from participating in the National Assembly, which is now packed with nominated former and active military officials. The interim Constitution also allows General Chan-ocha to be prime minister and army chief simultaneously. The new government is likely to continue till October 2015, when a general election is tentatively scheduled to take place.
The Thai military has justified its takeover of political power in the national interest, since disruptive political protests had marred the latter half of 2013 and the current year. The military used its powers to coerce political leaders and stifled political protests by the ‘Red Shirts’, the political faction led by former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her exiled brother former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The latter was ousted in a military coup in 2006.
General Chan-ocha’s elevation as prime minister ends another turbulent phase in Thailand’s fractious politics marked by the dwindling influence of the ‘Yellow Shirts’, the political faction comprising royalist supporters, the military and the Bangkok urban elite. It also underlines the frustration of this faction to making any dent in the popular support that the Shinawatras have built up through their Red Shirt faction that has its support base in the rural hinterland of Thailand.
The bloody quelling of the Red Shirt uprising, in support of Thaksin Shinawatra in early 2010, was masterminded by General Chan-ocha. The military-led government will no doubt concentrate on ensuring that the Shinawatras can somehow be prevented from winning the next election. The royalist-military combine seems determined to keep its hold on power, as long as the ailing 87-year-old king is alive. When Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn takes over, it would be open season again since the Shinawatras are considered close to the Crown Prince.
The ouster of a democratic elected government is not a new phenomenon in Thailand’s troubled political journey. The coup has not caused too much of an international outcry. Nor has it hit business sentiment in a sustained way, though there has been a dip in tourist inflows, a major contributor to Thailand’s GDP. The country’s economic outlook remains stable and likely to remain so, provided there is no large scale violence.
The Thai military has ignored expressions of concern by the USA, EU and the UN. The USA, a long standing ally of Thailand since the days of the Cold War and earlier, has been critical of the coup. The May coup messes up the USA’s pivot or rebalancing towards Asia, at a time when Southeast Asian nations are increasingly concerned over China’s brazen and assertive actions in the South China Sea.
Thailand’s royalist-military establishment is not averse to playing the “China card”. The Thai royals, elite and business leaders have strong ethnic linkages with China. Thailand-China ties, including military links, have grown. Thailand’s military leaders visited Beijing in June this year to foster defence cooperation. China has dismissed the coup as Thailand’s internal affair. General Chan-ocha has publicly announced that Thailand was now a “partner of China at every level”.
China has been cozying up to the military regime because it remains worried about its deteriorating relations with Vietnam and growing closeness between Myanmar and India, as well as the USA and the EU. The Chinese media is encouraging Thailand by spouting comments that “Western-style democracy” has not helped Thailand. If Thailand’s military-led government embraces China wholeheartedly, it will risk isolation within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A fractured ASEAN suits China.
The China factor has also prompted other major Asian countries, including India, from criticizing the coup in Thailand. India has engaged the new regime and established contacts with the military government. Thailand is India’s maritime neighbour, an important economic partner, as the second largest economy in ASEAN, has a flourishing Indian business community and is a favourite destination for Indian tourists. Within a few weeks of the coup, Japanese business activity and investments picked up and continues unabated, no doubt with the China factor in mind.
Thailand seems destined for another period of political and constitutional engineering by its military-led government. With the media muzzled and other watchdog institutions driven underground, there is no opposition worth the name. The Shinawatras and their Red Shirts are the only credible opposition, if they decide to pick up the gauntlet. It is also possible that they might choose to quietly bide their time till the king passes on and the Crown Prince ascends the throne. This choice will determine Thailand’s political future in the near future.
(Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty is a former Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, and a former ambassador to Thailand. He can be contacted at southasiamonitor1@gmail.com)
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